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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or simply the biggest upset.

But the latest field is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and longtime strugglers ascending collectively. In an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and fun season, he's competing with multiple other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a normal season!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

Still